The Burn Bag Newsletter: February 16th
Iran in Africa, Strongmen in Central America, and Escalating Tensions in Europe.
Welcome to The Burn Bag Newsletter. This week, we’re unveiling a new feature of the newsletter: the Regional Readout. Each week, our team will provide you with brief regional analysis of news you might have missed from around the world.
First, make sure to check out The Burn Bag Podcast’s most recent episode.
The Fourth Estate: Presidential Reporting with Zeke Miller, President of the White House Correspondents’ Association
On this special Presidents’ Day episode, A’ndre and Ryan talk with Zeke Miller, AP White House Reporter and White House Correspondents’ Assoc. President, about presidential reporting. They discuss the history of White House correspondents and the relationship between the President and the press. Zeke also discusses sourcing and the role of leaks. He shares his views on the public’s relationship with the press and how social media has impacted his job, in addition to providing some insights on how Presidents Obama, Trump, and Biden have interacted with the press.
Listen here on Spotify, or check out the episode wherever you get your podcasts.
The Regional Readout
Africa
Foiling the Ayatollah’s Revenge?
Iran has vowed to punish those responsible for the assassinations of top nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh and Qods Force Commander Qassem Soleimani. While some revenge has been exacted against American troops in Iraq, Iran is reportedly targeting the embassies of its foes in Africa. Sixteen individuals have been arrested in connection with the casing of the UAE’s embassy in Addis Ababa. According to the United States and Israel, Iranian assets have been collecting intelligence in the Ethiopian capital since the fall as part of a larger operation to scope out soft targets across the African continent. Iran has denied the allegations, claiming that the report is being “provoked by the Zionist regime’s malicious media.” This foiled plot follows the UAE’s normalization of relations with Israel, which strikes a blow to Iran’s regional power. It also threatens the potential for diplomacy with the United States, as the Biden Administration mulls returning to some sort of nuclear deal.
To learn more, check out:
https://www.voanews.com/middle-east/voa-news-iran/iran-looks-hit-us-interests-it-may-turn-africa
https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/irans-revolutionary-guards
The Americas
Electing a Future for Central America
In 2021, three countries across Central America – El Salvador, Nicaragua, and Honduras – will hold popular elections, the results of which could continue the subcontinent’s slide toward authoritarianism. In El Salvador, legislative elections are likely to firm up the aspiring autocrat Nayib Bukele’s grip around the country’s governing bodies. In Nicaragua, although opposition parties have agreed to form a political coalition, incumbent strongman President Daniel Ortega’s power to eject legislators and ban candidates suggests the coalition will face nearly impenetrable roadblocks. In 2017, months of deadly demonstrations erupted after Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernández was elected in an election rife with allegations of widespread fraud. While Hernández is not running again in 2021, the lack of electoral reform in the country means his National Party of Honduras is likely to win again, continuing its one-party rule of the presidency and congress that began in 2009. While the results of these elections seem all but certain, the Biden administration’s potential response to the decline of democracy in Central America remains unclear.
To learn more, check out:
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/americas/2021-01-28/latin-americas-darkest-hour
Europe
Moscow and Brussels Are Icing Over
Relations between Russia and the West are falling to post-Cold War lows as Europe reacts to the imprisonment of Russian opposition politician Alexei Navalny. As one of the Kremlin’s loudest critics, Navalny, who was likely poisoned by the Kremlin, now finds himself as the beacon of the anti-Putin movement. With Russia exchanging diplomatic expulsions with Germany, Poland, and Sweden, the European Union (EU) is mulling further economic sanctions, which would have a significant impact on Russia’s reeling economy. It’s unclear who would be targeted by additional sanctions, but many government officials and Kremlin-linked oligarchs are already subject to sanctions as a result of the annexation of Crimea and poisoning of former KGB double-agent Sergei Skripal. Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said ties could be severed if more sanctions are levied – a move that would surely cause EU-Russia relations to freeze over. With pressure mounting, how far will the EU go?
To learn more, check out:
https://ecfr.eu/article/how-russia-and-the-west-try-to-weaken-each-other/
The world is a big place and we can’t cover it all. What did we miss? Let us know what you’re interested in reading more about at burnbagpodcast@gmail.com or in the comments below.
Finally, make sure to check out this past week’s episode of The Burn Bag Podcast with Tracy Walder.
Listen here or wherever you get your podcasts.
In this episode, A’ndre and Ryan talk with Tracy Walder, a former CIA staff operations officer and FBI special agent, about her life navigating both of these agencies. They discuss why Tracy joined the CIA, and how she, as a 22 year old, was at the forefront of intelligence analysis in the immediate aftermath of 9/11, interacting with officials at the highest levels of government, including President Bush and CIA Director George Tenet. Tracy lifts the veil on the impact that working in the CIA and FBI has on daily life, which includes a candid discussion on how she overcame varying personal challenges throughout her career. Tracy talks about some of her field experiences, ranging from interviewing terrorists with the CIA’s Counterterrorism Center to working with the FBI on Chinese counterintelligence in Los Angeles. The conversation ends with Tracy’s perspective on diversity in the IC and how more women can pursue such careers.
This episode was based on Tracy’s fascinating and captivating book, “The Unexpected Spy: From the CIA to the FBI, My Secret Life Taking Down Some of the World’s Most Notorious Terrorists“.