Welcome to The Burn Bag Newsletter. This week, President Biden pushes Saudi Arabia on human rights, Rwanda loses its leading opposition politician, and Tunisians raise their voices against their government
Diplomacy
A Sign of Things to Come? Saudi Arabia Reveals the Biden Administration's Acknowledgment of Domestic Foreign Policy Concerns
Over the past few weeks, the Biden administration has dramatically shifted U.S. relations with Saudi Arabia. While the Saudis enjoyed particularly rosy relations with the Trump administration, a flurry of recent executive actions and statements from Biden administration officials seems to be changing all of that. In late January, the administration paused all arms deals to the kingdom, and beginning in February, Biden and senior officials announced an end to U.S. support for the war in Yemen, that Houthi militia groups opposed to Saudi Arabia would no longer be considered a foreign terrorist organization, and that Biden has not only not spoken to Saudi officials yet, but also that the administration does not see the kingdom’s de facto leader, Mohammed Bin Salman, as its rightful ruler.
These actions aren’t completely out of the blue. Biden repeatedly called Saudi Arabia a “pariah” in the region throughout his campaign, vowing to shift U.S. relations with the country. His cabinet appointees have also emphasized a U.S. foreign policy more human rights-focused than ever before. However, while U.S. support for Saudi Arabia is quite unpopular with Americans, actually shifting U.S. resources away from traditional security allies appears to still be a relatively hot-button issue, and only widely acceptable among left-wing political circles in the country. What remains to be seen is just how far the administration will go in pressuring traditional partners to adopt more extensive human rights policies, and what possible geopolitical threats will arise from such actions.
The administration’s particularly harsh statements against Saudi Arabia seem to signify that it sees the kingdom as a safe bet to test its foreign policy agenda. Not only does the administration appear to believe that the kingdom is tied to the U.S. for security protection against its chief regional adversary, Iran, but also that the country is unlikely to buck all U.S. demands and shift towards a closer alliance with U.S. adversaries such as Russia and China. This makes sense, considering that Saudi Arabia’s relations with Russia have soured from their recent oil price war, not to mention Russia’s historic support of Iran, and that the Saudi relationship with China is almost entirely economic.
If Saudi Arabia is truly as dependent on U.S. diplomatic, military, and strategic support as the Biden administration appears to believe it is, then strong pressure on the kingdom to improve its human rights record could lead to real change within the country and appease American domestic foreign policy opinions at the same time. However, several moves by the kingdom could push the Biden administration back to accepting more limited, and possibly uncommitted, improvements in Saudi human rights. A shift in the kingdom’s relations with Russia or China, for example, will surely test the Biden administration’s willingness to punish human rights offenders. A Saudi reversal of improving relations with Israel, something which Biden has mentioned he would like to continue among Arab nations, could also reveal the administration’s willingness to backtrack on its demands.
Overall, it seems likely that the Biden administration will use Saudi Arabia as a test of just how far it can pursue its human rights foreign policy agenda before implementing similar actions with other traditional U.S. partners. While harsh actions against human rights offenders will likely improve global and domestic opinions on U.S. foreign policy, it remains to be seen just how far Biden can push before traditional partners decide to move away from a U.S.-centered international order altogether.
The Regional Readout
Africa
Taking Out the Opposition?
Yesterday, Rwanda’s leading opposition politician, Abdallah Seif Bamporiki, was killed by gunmen in South Africa. Mr. Bamporiki, who had been living in exile, was the coordinator of the Rwanda National Congress (RNC), an opposition party located in South Africa. The RNC has accused the Rwandan government of perpetrating the killing and believes this is yet another instance of Rwandan President Paul Kagame taking out a political enemy. Similar murders have occurred across the region, including the 2014 assassination of former intelligence chief and RNC founding member Patrick Karegeya. President Kagame has received international condemnation for his authoritarianism, most recently due to the arrest of Paul Rusesabagina, a hero from the Rwandan Genocide who’s noble actions were popularized in the movie Hotel Rwanda. Kagame, who has ruled the country for over 20 years, vowed to step down in 2024, although such a move would prove dangerous for the strongman.
To learn more, check out:
https://apnews.com/article/a97d40a146284383a717aa2ec42eb39b
Europe
Combatting State Repression in Tunisia from Across the Mediterranean Sea
In January, civil unrest broke out in Tunisia as a result of public economic grievance related to the government’s announcement of a four-day total lockdown. The lockdown coincides with the ten-year anniversary of the revolution through which former President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali was ousted from power. The protests have also been fueled in part by the idea that the lockdown was instituted by the government to suppress civil demonstrations on the anniversary. Higher unemployment, inequality, corruption, and an increased police presence have also been key factors in fomenting the social protests. As a proponent of Tunisia’s growth and reform, the European Union has been concerned that the country will revert to repression as a consequence of economic hardship and civil unrest. European policymakers, however, have an opportunity to intervene: between 2014 and 2020, the European Union delivered €1.9 billion in aid and €800 million in loans to Tunisia. This flow of money provides the EU with significant leverage to induce the Tunisian government to adopt reforms to spur employment and tamp down police violence. It is up to the EU to decide whether to get involved.
To learn more, check out:
The world is a big place and we can’t cover it all. What did we miss? Let us know what you’re interested in reading more about at burnbagpodcast@gmail.com or in the comments below.
Finally, make sure to check out this week’s episode of The Burn Bag Podcast with Michael Barr.
The COVID Economy: Markets, Crypto, and Recovery with Michael Barr, Dean of the Gerald R. Ford School of Public Policy
Listen here or wherever you get your podcasts.
In this week’s episode of The Burn Bag Podcast, co-hosts A’ndre and Ryan speak to Michael Barr, Dean of the Ford School of Public Policy at the University of Michigan and former Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Financial Institutions. A’ndre, Ryan and Dean Barr discuss the challenges of rebuilding the global economy post-COVID-19, attracting foreign direct investment to the United States, the Robinhood debacle and securities regulation, repeating mistakes from the 2007/08 financial crisis, the risks of cryptocurrency, and economic sanctions as part of U.S. foreign policy.