Welcome to The Burn Bag Newsletter.
Tomorrow marks the end of the first full week of the Biden administration. New administrations bring new personnel and policy and often signal a significant shift in America’s attitude towards much of the world. What does the Biden administration bring? In this week’s newsletter, The Burn Bag Podcast hosts, A’ndre Gonawela and Ryan Rosenthal, and The Burn Bag Newsletter editor Will Solmssen try to answer that question.
You’re probably familiar with The Burn Bag Podcast, a weekly national security and foreign policy podcast featuring conversations with leading policy practitioners, thinkers, and leaders. If you aren’t, please visit our website and subscribe at Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Stitcher, Overcast, or Google. New episodes weekly!
First up: who?
Biden’s Cabinet: Key Players in Foreign Policy and National Security
Secretary of State: Antony Blinken
A former Deputy Secretary of State and Obama administration alum, Antony Blinken has been a long-time foreign policy advisor to President Biden, serving with him during his tenures as Chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and Vice President. Confirmed in a 78-22 vote, Secretary Blinken is generally expected to emphasize multilateralism. In his confirmation hearing, Blinken stated that he and the State Department would remain nonpartisan. On China, Blinken said that he agreed with the Trump administration’s “tougher approach,” but that he would engage the relationship from a “position of strength” and by different means. On Iran, Blinken agreed with Senator Lindsay Graham that Iran is the “largest state sponsor of terrorism,” but nevertheless asserted that re-entry into the Iran nuclear deal is critical for success regarding other Iran-related issues. Additionally, even though Blinken did affirm his intention to work with Congress on foreign policy issues, the Secretary cited “national security interests” as why some Biden administration policies won’t be implemented via congressionally-approved treaties. While Secretary Blinken has expressed support for the five-year extension of the nuclear arms reduction treaty, New START, with Russia, he also supports the use of sanctions on Russia as well.
Secretary of Defense: Lloyd Austin
A former CENTCOM commander, Lloyd Austin was confirmed Friday (93-2), becoming the United States’ first African American Defense Secretary. Despite some controversy over Congress once again waiving the requirement that Defense Secretaries be out of uniform for seven years (27 Senators opposed the waiver), Austin’s confirmation vote was bipartisan. In recent years, Austin served as CENTCOM commander between 2013-2016, oversaw the U.S. military’s initial operations against ISIS, and worked closely with then-Vice President Biden on issues involving Iraq. As Defense Secretary, Austin has pledged to revamp the Pentagon’s mobilization on coronavirus in addition to increasing diversity within the department.
Director of National Intelligence: Avril Haines
In her confirmation hearings, Haines qualified the Biden administration’s stance on re-entering the Iran nuclear deal, suggesting that there is no urgent need given Iran’s antagonistic actions in the Middle East. Haines also asserted that intelligence surrounding the Saudi Arabia government’s murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi would be released, a departure from Trump administration policy and a notable shift in American policy towards Saudi Arabia given the United States’ historically close relationship with the country. Haines was confirmed in an 84-10 vote to become the first female Director of National Intelligence.
CIA Director: William J. Burns
The nomination of career diplomat William J. Burns as CIA Director was unexpected but it signals the Biden administration’s intention to take the Agency in a new direction. A former Deputy Secretary of State, Burns has served decades under both Republicans and Democrats, and, like Austin and Blinken, he has an existing relationship with President Biden. David Ignatius of The Washington Post refers to Burns as “brainy, reserved, and collegial,” and as a “gray man.” Unlike other contenders for the post, including Michael Morell, David Cohen, and Sue Gordon, Burns is not an intelligence insider. As a diplomat, Burns has worked with the CIA while at the State Department, but he has never worked within the Intelligence Community — a fact which suggests that Burns could indeed cause a cultural shift within the Agency.
Note: In the Biden administration, CIA Director is not a cabinet-level position, another sign that President Biden foresees a different role for the Agency than in years past.
National Security Advisor: Jake Sullivan
Sullivan’s selection as national security advisor to President Biden is a return to a familiar dynamic between the two: in the Obama administration, Sullivan was then-Vice-President Biden’s national security advisor. Sullivan played an integral role in negotiating the Iran nuclear deal, has largely avoided partisanship, and has served at high levels within the foreign policy sphere at an exceptionally young age. In his role in leading the National Security Council, Sullivan has asserted that public health -- given the events of this past year -- will be adopted as a long-standing security priority. Like the Biden foreign policy apparatus at large, Sullivan, while emphasizing the importance of addressing China’s geopolitical rise, will generally strive to return to multilateralism and will certainly make use of long-standing personal and professional relationships with global partners from his storied career to do so.
Next up: what?
Policy in Five Parts: Forecasting Biden Administration Foreign Policy from Jake Sullivan’s Tweets
Incoming National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan has had a Twitter account since January 2015, but, curiously, it appears he’s only tweeted 21 times, and only since his selection in November as President Biden’s National Security Advisor. It’s rare that any public figure with a Twitter account has tweeted so sparingly. As such, while these 21 tweets are indeed real-time policy positions in response to events happening around the world, they also tell a story of the priorities, tactics, and attitudes that are likely to characterize the Biden administration’s foreign and national security policy. Below are five tweets that tell that story:
By selecting Sullivan, Biden is turning to people he knows — not necessarily loyalists in the Trumpian sense, but personnel with whom he’s comfortable and familiar and in whom he (and his allies) have confidence. Operating under the direction of former Obama administration policymakers, Biden’s national security policy will tend to favor the same themes of multilateralism and international cooperation that marked the Obama years. Expect notable departures from Obama-era policy as well: President Biden and administration officials have already signaled a harder stance in relations with Saudi Arabia and China.
Traditionally, it should come as no surprise that United States national security officials would express both concern for human rights abuses and support for conflict resolution mediated by an international coalition. In many ways, then, this tweet is not necessarily news. However, in contrast with the previous administration, Sullivan’s initial focus on African policy that extends beyond simply countering Chinese investment in the continent is a sign that the U.S. might pursue something more than a zero-sum foreign policy. Instead of a battleground upon which to spar with the Chinese government, it’s likely that this administration will approach both Africa and other underdeveloped regions of the world as opportunities for spurring economic and democratic growth and maintaining America’s commitment to safeguarding human rights around the world.
The climate crisis is a national security crisis—and in 39 days, the United States will once again treat climate change as the urgent national security priority it is, including by rejoining the Paris Agreement.Under a Biden-Harris Administration, we will rejoin the Paris Agreement on day one and lead the world in the fight against climate change. https://t.co/dHSsXRk35hJoe Biden @JoeBidenIn the Biden administration, expect to see climate change treated as a matter of national security, but not just in the way that you might think. While the whole of the Biden administration will undoubtedly focus on combatting climate change, including the National Security Council under “climate czar” John Kerry, Biden’s national security team may also find itself contending with the indirect global political consequences wrought by changing climates. Several existing conflicts can be tied to climate change: most notably, the Syrian Civil War can credibly be linked to a drought that caused mass migration into the country’s urban centers. Further migration and competition for increasingly scarce natural resources are likely to lead to further conflict around the world. Anticipating and responding to these developing international and intra-state conflicts will both require an acknowledgement of the effects of climate change, as well as an understanding of the ways in which those effects are likely to shift political dynamics in every region of the world.
Simplistic arguments against American involvement around the world often center on its lack of obvious dividends paid to American taxpayers. By connecting American activity abroad to American domestic interests, Sullivan makes the case clear: good foreign policy is good domestic policy. Decisions regarding trade policy or international public health preparedness affect Americans’ daily lives, and the Biden administration seems to be positioning itself to message that way. It’s possible that that’s all this is — a change in messaging — but even so, it may still reinvigorate American support for international leadership and engagement.
Agree with @SenToddYoung on last-minute terrorist designation of Houthi Movement. Houthi commanders need to be held accountable, but designating the whole organization will only inflict more suffering on Yemeni people and impede diplomacy critical to end the war.Today’s decision by @SecPompeo to declare the Houthi movement in Yemen as a terrorist organization is yet another misstep in the United States’ years long misguided approach to the conflict in Yemen.Senator Todd Young @SenToddYoungThe Yemeni Civil War is a good example of how establishment American foreign policy positions have shifted since the Obama administration and how such shifts lagged behind policymaking in the Trump administration. With President Biden set to end the United States’ support for Saudi Arabia’s involvement in Yemen (a bipartisan position), it’s worth remembering both Presidents Obama and Trump neglected to treat the country too harshly while the Saudi government wrote the U.S. enormous checks. This move is significant for a number of reasons: it demonstrates that foreign policy can still be bipartisan, it shows that foreign policy can indeed evolve, and, most importantly, it signals that the United States may no longer be willing to compromise its values for cash or influence, even when that requires standing up to America’s strategic allies. This change in attitude is likely to apply to both countries and corporations alike, with Biden administration officials more intent on pushing back against malfeasance and wrongdoing. Rest assured, U.S.-Saudi relations will remain strong, but, at the very least, there may be a limit to what America will ignore.
If four years of government by tweet have left any legacy, it’s that tweets carry the weight of official decree. Whether these five tweets will weigh the same remains to be seen.
Finally: with whom?
Adversaries and Allies: Where Will Joe Go?
America is under new management. Allies and adversaries alike are preparing for the coming changes to U.S. foreign and national security policy, but what will the “Biden Doctrine” actually look like? Let’s dig into the key international players to find out.
Allies
North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg breathed a sigh of relief last Wednesday. The Trump administration’s policy towards the transatlantic alliance was contentious (to put it mildly), but President Biden, long a proponent of strengthening NATO, is primed to deepen transatlantic cooperation. This is particularly significant as all eyes are turned towards China. Despite NATO being stood up as a bulwark against the Soviet Union, its members are facing an incredibly versatile and challenging threat, but one that can unite the alliance.
European Union (EU)
Brexit, backsliding, and bye-bye Angela. Even prior to the Covid-19 pandemic, the EU was experiencing disunion. Europe is a consequential partner in preparing for a post-pandemic world, especially as Russia and China seek to grow their geopolitical gains from the past four years. The Biden administration faces an uphill battle in drawing the EU away from trade and investment deals with adversaries and promoting European union.
Adversaries
China
If there is one certainty, it’s that the United States will maintain pressure on China. The Biden administration has expressed its commitment to standing up to the People’s Republic, so prepare for a United States that goes after China’s unfair trade practices, inadequate emissions standards, and draconian treatment of its citizens. Addressing the China threat will likely be President Biden’s most significant foreign policy challenge and one that requires looking beyond bilateral tit-for-tat; Biden’s China strategy will be multilateral, multidimensional, and multi-regional.
Russia
On day one, President Biden affirmed U.S. commitment to extending New START, the incredibly important arms control agreement that will expire in two weeks. With President Vladimir Putin experiencing domestic unrest at home and challenges to strategic positions abroad, Russia is likely to act out. While there won’t be a ‘reset’ in U.S.-Russia relations, the Biden administration is poised to use transatlantic relationships to deter the Kremlin’s foreign adventures and further wrangle illicit oligarchic wealth.
Wild Card
Iran
Three words: Iran nuclear deal. The Islamic Republic has been put under tremendous pressure due to the Trump administration leaving the JCPOA, implementing economic sanctions, and carrying out targeted operations against key Iranian officials. Some sort of deal is likely, but President Biden will face skeptics at home and abroad. Secretary of State Blinken acknowledged that a deal won’t be easy or quick, but with Iran having resumed uranium enrichment, time is something that Blinken doesn’t have.
Not a very rosy picture…but who said foreign and national security policy were easy? U.S. allies and adversaries know Joe Biden, and his predictability is an asset. Alliances will be rebuilt, institutions will be strengthened, and America’s foes will be put on notice. The Biden Doctrine is coming, but is it enough?
By now, you’re probably familiar with The Burn Bag Podcast, a weekly national security and foreign policy podcast featuring conversations with leading policy practitioners, thinkers, and leaders. If you aren’t, please visit our website and subscribe at Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Stitcher, Overcast, or Google. New episodes weekly!